Extreme Weather by Peter Bunyard (Floris Books, Edinburgh, 2007, 256 pages, ISBN: 0863155685, £16.99)
Reviewed for Fourth World Review by Peter Etherden - see page 20 in Issue Number 142                                 1200 Words

The global debate on climate and energy appears to be driven by the concerns of green liberals but Michael Crichton in his 2003 novel State of Fear and in his appearance before last year’s Republican-controlled Senate Committee on Global Warming believes matters are more complicated. Indeed a Senate Committee investigation found a number of the scientists behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) driving the Kyoto Treaty process to be guilty of a conspiracy to defraud the American public. The senators were persuaded that a group of IPCC scientists had deliberately set out to cover up evidence of the medieval warm period during which many wondrous historical events took place including the circumnavigation of Greenland in 1421 by the Chinese admiral Zhou Wen.

As powerful global players deploy their forces in a War Against Global Warming honest scientists find themselves on the horns of a dilemma. If like Peter Bunyard they are a Fellow of the Linnean Society of London and a former science editor at The Ecologist with a strong public stance against nuclear power it is not easy knowing which way to jump when your publisher commissions a glossy coffee-table book about what global warming and climate change mean for the future of our planet and the human race. How to square the circle of personal integrity with your scientific credentials? Peter Bunyard knows that the only sane, humane and ecological (SHE) energy policy is for national and international energy grids to be dismantled. England’s energy needs are best met by county energy self-sufficiency. Phased in over ten years this policy would introduce swingeing custom duties after the transition period is up to ensure that all piped energy transfers across county lines are eliminated. They are completely unnecessary. Enough sunlight falls on your back garden to fuel your energy needs hundreds of times over.

But in a world gone mad the world of science has become its own art form. Peter Bunyard’s Extreme Weather is cleverly written and beautifully produced and I take my hat off to him for the way he emerges from his labours with his personal integrity pretty well intact. The Guardianistas will love all the disaster pictures while the Carbon Theologians will delude themselves into believing Peter Bunyard is ‘one of us’. He is not. ‘What if we were to get away from the concept and operation of an all-dominating central grid system with large power stations transmitting electricity all over the country,’ Bunyard asks in the concluding chapter. What indeed? And he goes on to point out that ‘isolated central grid power stations, including nuclear reactors, lose as much as two-thirds of the energy generated in the cooling systems’. Bunyard knows that the energy used and the carbon emissions generated in constructing nuclear power plants high on the Yorkshire Moors makes a nonsense of the idea of building more radioactive steam kettles because he wrote about it in a series of articles in The Ecologist last year. Why the Yorkshire Moors? Sea level rises due to global warming means existing sites are untenable. Such are the nonsense and the contradictions of the official case.

NB. The following paragraphs were not included by the editor in the published review in FWR 142 in March 2007.

But now the Guardianistas have their coffee table book I wonder why Peter Bunyard does not publish an anonymous polemic that discusses his private views about the real local options available to address legitimate scientific concerns about future climate uncertainties and new energy infrastructures. How much does a 67-year old scientist really have to lose? The real scientific consensus is that whenever any scientist comes up with data proving mankind’s impact on climate change other scientists come up with at least four plausible alternative explanations…data measurement anomalies, local conditions, planetary dynamics (sun, moon, earth and planets) and terrestrial dynamics (volcanic action and ocean currents). Correlation is not causation and new global climate mechanisms are being discovered almost every week with very little sign of any let-up in the pace of discovery. This is very good news because it means that eventually we will actually start to understand the interconnections. At present nobody has a clue about climate and the computer models are no more than bold stabs at modelling a few aspects of our climate futures.

On 3rd December 2004 just days before the start of a United Nations Conference on Climate Change, Science Magazine published a study by Naomi Oreskes providing ‘empirical evidence for a unanimous scientific consensus on the anthropogenic causes of global warming’. However when Dr Benny Peiser of Liverpool’s John Moore’s University sought to replicate the study he found the results had been falsified. Only 13 of 1117 abstracts explicitly endorsed the consensus view with a further 322 abstracts implicitly accepted it in assessing the impact of envisaged global climate change. On 18th February 2005 Etta Kavanagh…the associate letters editor at Science Magazine…replied to Peiser’s request that Science publish a correction to the misleading implications of the Oreskes article. Here it is. ‘Dear Dr. Peiser, a couple of weeks ago you submitted a letter to the editor on Naomi Oreskes' essay The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. In its current form it is too long for a letter but we would consider a shorter version if you are willing to edit it. It should be 500 words or less, not counting the references. A correction dealing with the mistake in the search terms ‘global climate change’ vs. ‘climate change’ was published in our Jan. 14 issue.’ So that’s all right then.

Mount Kilimanjaro is a good example. Its glacier has been retreating for a hundred years. Carbon emissions and global warming have nothing to do with it. But Man certainly does. Deforestation below the tree line is the culprit…a local conditions explanation. Bunyard deals with this by maintaining a discreet silence in the text…while allowing the editors to insert before and after pictures of the glacier. A misleading picture is worth a thousand dubious words. Some might call this disingenuous but I prefer to call it diplomatic. A scientist is dead in the water if his grants are cut off. But it would be nice to know what the better-informed scientists really think. Nowadays public science is an arm of public relations with an urgent need for scientific juries and something akin to an advertising standards authorities to referee scientific claims. Perhaps Climate Computer Models will one day carry a Government Health Warning like packs of cigarettes. Meanwhile enjoy all the pretty pictures of climate disasters in Peter Bunyard’s run-through of the present state of scientific knowledge about our planet’s climate past and present. But it is cloud cuckoo land to believe that any international priesthood stands the foggiest chance of doing anything intelligent about any real problems. Furthering their own private power and seeking ever more aggrandisement of corporate governance is the more likely result of any meddling with the Earth’s climate.  

 

Rye, Sussex

Saturday 3rd February 2007